Column: Marcos vs Robredo one-on-one debate, ASAP

Published in Rappler on April 26, 2022.

As far as I can tell, from the conversion stories I’ve read or heard about or have had told to me, the weakening in Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s pre-election survey ratings can be attributed to three issues: The unpaid taxes on the estate the dictator left behind; the continuing dishonesty about his education; and the failure to take part in competitive presidential debates.

Many other issues attach to Marcos Junior’s name, especially the plunder and the human rights violations that he and his family committed during the dictatorship, but in my reading, these have been either discounted or explained away by years of pro-Marcos propaganda or outright disinformation on social media. (I regret coming to this conclusion, but that is the reality I see.)

What has gained traction in recent months is a set of three related issues. To be sure, these push factors are complemented by the pull factors of the other campaigns, especially those of Vice President Robredo’s surging, volunteer-driven movement and, for a time, from Manila Mayor Isko Moreno’s chill, plain-speaking appeal. But in terms of vulnerabilities, these three are Marcos’s weaknesses.

Column: Ping Lacson’s premature endgame

Published in Rappler on April 18, 2022.

The first time Senator Ping Lacson ran for president, in 2004, he won over 10% of the vote. In the last two Pulse Asia surveys, the latest of which was released on April 6, he is polling at 2%.

This is not a surprise, because Philippine history teaches an unforgiving lesson: Either you make it to the presidency on your first try, or you never make it at all. The corollary to this history lesson is even more bleak: If you lose in your first attempt, you will fare worse in your next.

In 1992, Miriam Defensor Santiago earned 4.4 million votes, placing a close second to Fidel Ramos; in 1998, she got less than 800,000 votes. In 1998, Raul Roco won 3.7 million votes and landed a distant third, in an election Joseph Estrada won by a landslide; in 2004, his total dropped to a little over 2 million. In 2004, when Gloria Arroyo won, Eddie Villanueva garnered a little under 2 million votes, ending fifth and last; in 2010, he won 1.1 million votes. 

If history is any guide, then, Lacson will get substantially fewer votes in 2022 than the 3.5 million he received in 2004. His best survey result in 2004 was in the first half of March, a month after the official campaign started; 12% of voters said they would vote for him. His best in the 2022 election cycle is exactly half that, at 6%.

Lacson is headed for certain defeat. Despite having learned an important lesson from his 2004 run, which is to campaign this time with a vice presidential running mate, his candidacy has failed to capture the public’s imagination, to establish himself as the alternative, or to offer a compelling rationale for rewriting history.

Column: Enough time for ‘Ro-mentum’

Published in Rappler on April 11, 2022.

Last week was a true turning point for the presidential candidacy of Vice President Leni Robredo. Fresh from another strong debate performance and the launch of a coordinated, month-long house-to-house campaign on Sunday, April 3, she launched impressive sorties into six provinces, which included large rallies in Duterte country (35,000 in Tagum, Davao del Norte on Thursday, April 7), in the so-called Solid North (76,000 in Dagupan, Pangasinan on Friday, April 8), and in Gloria Arroyo’s bailiwick (an extraordinary 220,000 in San Fernando, Pampanga on Saturday, April 9). The results of the latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted March 17 to 21, were released in the middle of the week, on April 6; they reflected a surge in her support for the first time since the large, joyous, volunteer-driven rallies became a trademark of her campaign. And they spurred greater enthusiasm among her volunteers, helping drive even more supporters to the rallies in Pangasinan and Pampanga.

If the Pulse Asia survey is an accurate guide, the gap between Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the survey leader, and Robredo remains wide; about three and a half weeks ago, he polled at 56% (down from 60); she polled at 24 (up from 15). Robredo remains very much the underdog; with only 28 days to Election Day, she needs to continue playing catch-up. The Robredo momentum, or “Ro-mentum,” to coin a term, is real. The question, as I asked on March 28, is about time, or the lack of it: Is there enough time for the momentum to swing all the way to victory?

Column: To win, Leni Robredo needs 22 million votes

Published in Rappler on March 28, 2022.

The surge in support for Vice President Leni Robredo’s candidacy is real, though it has yet to be reflected in a publicly available scientific survey. The large rallies and the pivotal declarations of support from local officials are only the most audible signals in all the election noise. It may only be a question of time, or the lack of it: Is there enough time for the momentum to swing all the way to victory? 

But I find it unhelpful, and even unhealthy, to think in terms of only one hue of pink as a symbol of support; to say, for instance, that after the massive rally in Malolos on March 5 and the declaration of support from Governor Dan Fernando on March 14, “Bulacan is pink.” I can understand why it is said; it is both rightful recognition (of a partial fact) and rah-rah rhetoric (to boost morale and drive the campaign). But the reality is there are various shades of pink—and Robredo doesn’t need all provinces and cities to turn full pink.

How many votes does Robredo need in order to win the presidency? I will try to answer this using regional vote totals.

Column: Dynamic race, static survey?

Published in Rappler on March 14, 2022.

Art by Nico Villarete

The latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted in the third week of February but whose results were released only on Monday, March 14, shows the main presidential candidates running in place. The February results are fundamentally the same as in January: Ferdinand Marcos Jr still at 60, Leni Robredo at 15 (down from 16), Isko Moreno at 10 (up by two), Manny Pacquiao still at 8, Ping Lacson at 2 (down from 4). The movements are within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.

To those of us following the campaigns closely, Pulse Asia’s February survey is disorienting—not because of the actual results, but because of the lack of movement in the results. A static survey to explain a dynamic race can cause political vertigo.

Column: What we can expect from a Marcos Junior presidency

The dictator’s son will seek to reshape the Philippines in his father’s bloated image. Published in Rappler on March 2, 2022.

In 2011, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. proposed changing Rizal Day from December 30 to June 19. He was a new senator, in his first year in office; he filed Senate Bill 2743 on June 18, the day before the country marked the 150th birth anniversary of the national hero. “The birthday of our national hero should always be a day of celebration of his life and of his great contribution to the country’s dependence from foreign domination,” he said.

As I had the chance to explain on the ABS-CBN News Channel that same week, that proposal to change Rizal Day from the date of his execution by Spanish colonial authorities in 1896 to the date of his birthday in 1861 was a mistake. December 30 is our oldest secular holiday—observed by the revolutionaries exiled in Hong Kong in 1897, the subject of a proclamation by Emilio Aguinaldo in 1898, constantly observed since then. The revolutionary generation, who were directly inspired by Rizal, saw his martyrdom as a defining moment in the shaping of our history. Six presidents—including Marcos Junior’s own father, on two occasions—took their oath of office on December 30, at a time when presidential inaugurations were integrated into Rizal Day rites.

Nothing came of the proposal; on hindsight, the bill seemed to have been filed as a belated attempt to extend (or to capitalize on) the significance of the Rizal sesquicentennial, the first to mark the 150th birth anniversary of the heroes (including Bonifacio, Mabini, Aguinaldo) born in the 1860s.

What does Marcos Junior’s willingness to change the date of Rizal Day imply for a second Marcos presidency? I have an idea.